{ "generated_at": "2026-10-06T16:36:53.039217+00:00", "window": { "start": "2026-04-01T00:00:00+00:00", "end": "2026-10-05T23:00:00+00:00" }, "model": "o3_surface_v1", "min_hours_per_site": 720, "note": "Next-hour predictions for April 1 - October 5, 2026, months the model never trained on. Inputs at monitor cells are the monitors' own readings up to hour t (certified AQS where available, otherwise AirNow preliminary), built exactly as in training; each prediction is scored against the reading at t+1. Persistence (next hour = this hour) and climatology (the cell's 2018-2025 mean for that month and hour) are scored on the same rows. Sites with fewer than 720 scored hours are listed but left out of every average.", "pollutants": { "no2": { "cells": 5, "hours": 21212, "airnow_fraction": 0.999, "excluded_cells": { "R0024_C0000": 5, "R0026_C0002": 5 }, "avg_cell": { "lstm": 0.7277, "linear": 0.6727, "rf": 0.7263, "xgboost": 0.742, "persistence": 0.6828, "climatology": 0.1689 }, "pooled": { "lstm": { "n": 21212, "r2": 0.8027, "rmse": 4.706, "bias": -0.682 }, "linear": { "n": 21212, "r2": 0.79, "rmse": 4.855, "bias": -0.7 }, "rf": { "n": 21212, "r2": 0.8347, "rmse": 4.308, "bias": -0.276 }, "xgboost": { "n": 21212, "r2": 0.8364, "rmse": 4.285, "bias": -0.502 }, "persistence": { "n": 21212, "r2": 0.8127, "rmse": 4.585, "bias": 0.024 }, "climatology": { "n": 21212, "r2": 0.4575, "rmse": 7.804, "bias": 0.226 } }, "per_cell": { "lstm": { "R0001_C0004": { "n": 4094, "r2": 0.6183, "rmse": 4.708, "bias": 0.9 }, "R0004_C0004": { "n": 4170, "r2": 0.7027, "rmse": 1.549, "bias": 0.083 }, "R0023_C0000": { "n": 4448, "r2": 0.8426, "rmse": 2.534, "bias": -0.03 }, "R0026_C0000": { "n": 4200, "r2": 0.6171, "rmse": 8.158, "bias": -4.295 }, "R0026_C0003": { "n": 4300, "r2": 0.8578, "rmse": 3.767, "bias": -0.075 } }, "linear": { "R0001_C0004": { "n": 4094, "r2": 0.533, "rmse": 5.207, "bias": 1.621 }, "R0004_C0004": { "n": 4170, "r2": 0.5974, "rmse": 1.803, "bias": -0.13 }, "R0023_C0000": { "n": 4448, "r2": 0.7671, "rmse": 3.083, "bias": -0.338 }, "R0026_C0000": { "n": 4200, "r2": 0.6541, "rmse": 7.754, "bias": -4.676 }, "R0026_C0003": { "n": 4300, "r2": 0.8119, "rmse": 4.333, "bias": 0.044 } }, "rf": { "R0001_C0004": { "n": 4094, "r2": 0.613, "rmse": 4.74, "bias": 0.112 }, "R0004_C0004": { "n": 4170, "r2": 0.6391, "rmse": 1.707, "bias": 0.233 }, "R0023_C0000": { "n": 4448, "r2": 0.7972, "rmse": 2.877, "bias": 0.078 }, "R0026_C0000": { "n": 4200, "r2": 0.756, "rmse": 6.512, "bias": -1.783 }, "R0026_C0003": { "n": 4300, "r2": 0.8263, "rmse": 4.164, "bias": -0.035 } }, "xgboost": { "R0001_C0004": { "n": 4094, "r2": 0.6243, "rmse": 4.67, "bias": 0.212 }, "R0004_C0004": { "n": 4170, "r2": 0.6916, "rmse": 1.578, "bias": 0.043 }, "R0023_C0000": { "n": 4448, "r2": 0.8121, "rmse": 2.769, "bias": -0.179 }, "R0026_C0000": { "n": 4200, "r2": 0.7461, "rmse": 6.643, "bias": -2.474 }, "R0026_C0003": { "n": 4300, "r2": 0.836, "rmse": 4.045, "bias": -0.118 } }, "persistence": { "R0001_C0004": { "n": 4094, "r2": 0.5371, "rmse": 5.185, "bias": 0.021 }, "R0004_C0004": { "n": 4170, "r2": 0.6096, "rmse": 1.775, "bias": -0.014 }, "R0023_C0000": { "n": 4448, "r2": 0.7295, "rmse": 3.322, "bias": -0.005 }, "R0026_C0000": { "n": 4200, "r2": 0.7499, "rmse": 6.593, "bias": 0.153 }, "R0026_C0003": { "n": 4300, "r2": 0.7877, "rmse": 4.603, "bias": -0.03 } }, "climatology": { "R0001_C0004": { "n": 4094, "r2": -0.0026, "rmse": 7.63, "bias": 1.63 }, "R0004_C0004": { "n": 4170, "r2": 0.1616, "rmse": 2.601, "bias": -0.274 }, "R0023_C0000": { "n": 4448, "r2": 0.2119, "rmse": 5.671, "bias": -0.013 }, "R0026_C0000": { "n": 4200, "r2": 0.245, "rmse": 11.455, "bias": 0.393 }, "R0026_C0003": { "n": 4300, "r2": 0.2286, "rmse": 8.774, "bias": -0.543 } } }, "monthly": { "lstm": { "2026-04": 0.7279, "2026-05": 0.6955, "2026-06": 0.7376, "2026-07": 0.6821, "2026-08": 0.7051, "2026-09": 0.7499, "2026-10": 0.7438 }, "linear": { "2026-04": 0.6771, "2026-05": 0.651, "2026-06": 0.7002, "2026-07": 0.6194, "2026-08": 0.6356, "2026-09": 0.6629, "2026-10": 0.6204 }, "rf": { "2026-04": 0.7235, "2026-05": 0.7069, "2026-06": 0.7422, "2026-07": 0.6758, "2026-08": 0.7098, "2026-09": 0.7444, "2026-10": 0.6833 }, "xgboost": { "2026-04": 0.7403, "2026-05": 0.732, "2026-06": 0.7501, "2026-07": 0.6939, "2026-08": 0.7235, "2026-09": 0.7619, "2026-10": 0.7301 }, "persistence": { "2026-04": 0.6821, "2026-05": 0.6693, "2026-06": 0.7006, "2026-07": 0.6429, "2026-08": 0.6477, "2026-09": 0.6786, "2026-10": 0.6558 }, "climatology": { "2026-04": 0.0487, "2026-05": 0.1601, "2026-06": 0.206, "2026-07": 0.1994, "2026-08": 0.2511, "2026-09": 0.1532, "2026-10": -0.3089 } }, "lstm_beats_persistence_cells": 4 }, "o3": { "cells": 17, "hours": 74131, "airnow_fraction": 0.98, "excluded_cells": { "R0025_C0001": 5, "R0026_C0002": 5 }, "avg_cell": { "lstm": 0.9304, "linear": 0.9143, "rf": 0.9194, "xgboost": 0.9196, "persistence": 0.8964, "climatology": 0.5029 }, "pooled": { "lstm": { "n": 74131, "r2": 0.9323, "rmse": 7.637, "bias": 1.149 }, "linear": { "n": 74131, "r2": 0.9154, "rmse": 8.534, "bias": 1.184 }, "rf": { "n": 74131, "r2": 0.9218, "rmse": 8.207, "bias": 0.685 }, "xgboost": { "n": 74131, "r2": 0.9219, "rmse": 8.199, "bias": 1.643 }, "persistence": { "n": 74131, "r2": 0.8988, "rmse": 9.334, "bias": 0.033 }, "climatology": { "n": 74131, "r2": 0.5271, "rmse": 20.179, "bias": -2.197 } }, "per_cell": { "lstm": { "R0000_C0000": { "n": 4340, "r2": 0.9407, "rmse": 6.952, "bias": 0.225 }, "R0004_C0004": { "n": 4177, "r2": 0.9386, "rmse": 6.078, "bias": -0.825 }, "R0017_C0006": { "n": 3986, "r2": 0.9262, "rmse": 6.137, "bias": 0.198 }, 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0.8302, "rmse": 12.531, "bias": 6.391 } }, "linear": { "R0000_C0000": { "n": 4340, "r2": 0.924, "rmse": 7.869, "bias": 0.218 }, "R0004_C0004": { "n": 4177, "r2": 0.9192, "rmse": 6.976, "bias": -0.257 }, "R0017_C0006": { "n": 3986, "r2": 0.9214, "rmse": 6.333, "bias": 0.017 }, "R0018_C0000": { "n": 4453, "r2": 0.9235, "rmse": 8.725, "bias": 1.111 }, "R0018_C0001": { "n": 4305, "r2": 0.92, "rmse": 7.493, "bias": 0.445 }, "R0018_C0006": { "n": 4409, "r2": 0.9208, "rmse": 7.785, "bias": 0.001 }, "R0019_C0011": { "n": 4417, "r2": 0.9354, "rmse": 6.829, "bias": 0.968 }, "R0021_C0000": { "n": 4361, "r2": 0.8743, "rmse": 11.527, "bias": 2.838 }, "R0022_C0011": { "n": 4331, "r2": 0.9331, "rmse": 7.506, "bias": 0.878 }, "R0023_C0000": { "n": 4492, "r2": 0.9256, "rmse": 9.005, "bias": 0.391 }, "R0026_C0003": { "n": 4299, "r2": 0.9232, "rmse": 8.762, "bias": 0.011 }, "R0026_C0010": { "n": 4464, "r2": 0.9283, "rmse": 8.051, "bias": 0.753 }, "R0027_C0001": { "n": 4471, "r2": 0.9139, "rmse": 8.696, 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"R0023_C0000": { "n": 4492, "r2": 0.9416, "rmse": 7.98, "bias": 0.315 }, "R0026_C0003": { "n": 4299, "r2": 0.9326, "rmse": 8.206, "bias": 0.098 }, "R0026_C0010": { "n": 4464, "r2": 0.9314, "rmse": 7.871, "bias": 0.602 }, "R0027_C0001": { "n": 4471, "r2": 0.9293, "rmse": 7.877, "bias": 0.308 }, "R0027_C0005": { "n": 4472, "r2": 0.9301, "rmse": 8.558, "bias": 0.148 }, "R0028_C0005": { "n": 4426, "r2": 0.919, "rmse": 7.373, "bias": -0.259 }, "R0028_C0009": { "n": 4452, "r2": 0.9302, "rmse": 6.914, "bias": -0.275 }, "R0028_C0010": { "n": 4276, "r2": 0.8253, "rmse": 12.709, "bias": 6.083 } }, "xgboost": { "R0000_C0000": { "n": 4340, "r2": 0.9256, "rmse": 7.788, "bias": 2.527 }, "R0004_C0004": { "n": 4177, "r2": 0.93, "rmse": 6.493, "bias": -0.473 }, "R0017_C0006": { "n": 3986, "r2": 0.9035, "rmse": 7.017, "bias": 1.524 }, "R0018_C0000": { "n": 4453, "r2": 0.9285, "rmse": 8.434, "bias": 1.056 }, "R0018_C0001": { "n": 4305, "r2": 0.9233, "rmse": 7.336, "bias": 1.235 }, "R0018_C0006": { "n": 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"R0028_C0009": { "n": 4452, "r2": 0.9039, "rmse": 8.111, "bias": 0.074 }, "R0028_C0010": { "n": 4276, "r2": 0.8881, "rmse": 10.173, "bias": 0.075 } }, "climatology": { "R0000_C0000": { "n": 4340, "r2": 0.5241, "rmse": 19.699, "bias": -6.102 }, "R0004_C0004": { "n": 4177, "r2": 0.3463, "rmse": 19.84, "bias": -5.092 }, "R0017_C0006": { "n": 3986, "r2": 0.3882, "rmse": 17.671, "bias": -1.058 }, "R0018_C0000": { "n": 4453, "r2": 0.553, "rmse": 21.093, "bias": -2.569 }, "R0018_C0001": { "n": 4305, "r2": 0.4532, "rmse": 19.589, "bias": -3.988 }, "R0018_C0006": { "n": 4409, "r2": 0.442, "rmse": 20.665, "bias": -4.492 }, "R0019_C0011": { "n": 4417, "r2": 0.514, "rmse": 18.724, "bias": -3.837 }, "R0021_C0000": { "n": 4361, "r2": 0.5536, "rmse": 21.726, "bias": -4.583 }, "R0022_C0011": { "n": 4331, "r2": 0.5132, "rmse": 20.245, "bias": -3.188 }, "R0023_C0000": { "n": 4492, "r2": 0.5947, "rmse": 21.02, "bias": 0.064 }, "R0026_C0003": { "n": 4299, "r2": 0.5154, "rmse": 22.01, "bias": 1.825 }, "R0026_C0010": { "n": 4464, "r2": 0.5602, "rmse": 19.934, "bias": -1.893 }, "R0027_C0001": { "n": 4471, "r2": 0.5527, "rmse": 19.816, "bias": 0.605 }, "R0027_C0005": { "n": 4472, "r2": 0.5338, "rmse": 22.094, "bias": 1.299 }, "R0028_C0005": { "n": 4426, "r2": 0.4738, "rmse": 18.794, "bias": -0.764 }, "R0028_C0009": { "n": 4452, "r2": 0.4921, "rmse": 18.649, "bias": -2.276 }, "R0028_C0010": { "n": 4276, "r2": 0.5392, "rmse": 20.642, "bias": -1.498 } } }, "monthly": { "lstm": { "2026-04": 0.9116, "2026-05": 0.9397, "2026-06": 0.9279, "2026-07": 0.9207, "2026-08": 0.9126, "2026-09": 0.9202, "2026-10": 0.9173 }, "linear": { "2026-04": 0.897, "2026-05": 0.928, "2026-06": 0.9094, "2026-07": 0.9015, "2026-08": 0.8933, "2026-09": 0.8997, "2026-10": 0.8914 }, "rf": { "2026-04": 0.8999, "2026-05": 0.9269, "2026-06": 0.9143, "2026-07": 0.9078, "2026-08": 0.9038, "2026-09": 0.9079, "2026-10": 0.9093 }, "xgboost": { "2026-04": 0.9041, "2026-05": 0.9295, "2026-06": 0.916, "2026-07": 0.9091, "2026-08": 0.902, "2026-09": 0.9009, "2026-10": 0.9006 }, "persistence": { "2026-04": 0.8782, "2026-05": 0.9153, "2026-06": 0.8856, "2026-07": 0.8774, "2026-08": 0.8702, "2026-09": 0.8829, "2026-10": 0.8881 }, "climatology": { "2026-04": 0.3922, "2026-05": 0.2949, "2026-06": 0.4702, "2026-07": 0.5113, "2026-08": 0.5915, "2026-09": 0.4277, "2026-10": 0.287 } }, "lstm_beats_persistence_cells": 16 } } }